Researcher needs checker who writes about the future and the changes that may occur in the human society and its systems and formats values in it, needs to recognize the size of the responsibility and discretion in this aspect, so do not stranded by the imagination in the perception or go to the prospects are far from physical reality and social around him, Vtjie study - then - closer to the stories or fairy tales that you may not find a representative on the ground, as he went to the writers many people in some of their writings, such as George Orwell George Orwell and Old Huxley, Aldous Huxley, who have been writing in this area, or what we might call the vision of the future, which has been in many of them closer to literary fiction dreamer, to which indeed!! Though in some of this fantasy has become close to the truth.
Va_i_rav future or try to draw a picture or features him in some way is the subject of "humane" as it relates to the fate of man in general, has a relationship (b Enbgaat) lurk in the mind of the writer, stems, which wants to happen or wish to not check in the future, or is the direct projection on the future than the present. Valmkhatrh here great .. However'll try ..
The researcher in this field usually take a number of means and methods that rely on concepts of the "guessing" or predict Prediction, digressing from the reality of the situation in order to devise the general trends in the future, or draw a picture of "process" virtual features of the future, and the difficulty beside abstention objective , lies in the lack of data can be built upon, particularly in developing countries in general, and the countries of the Arabian Gulf region in particular, where we lack the "data base" close to accuracy.
We must remember here stand philosophically to British researcher is Anthony Giddens, sociologist at the London School of Economics, and was even late adviser to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in his famous theory in the sociology err if he walked in after the social sciences, in the hope of discovering the laws General social behavior, as it misses that remained within the framework of description and explanation of the phenomena, it must be seen to sociology as a "critical activity", from here, "the sociological imagination" plays an important role in "anticipate alternative futures." Words: the sociology of the main tasks, "critique of existing social forms, and predicted its alternatives"
It should be noted that the research in the future under conditions cause for optimism or pessimism, a lot of risk, and increase the risk of gravity in a world characterized by information revolution, and the evolution of massive technical means in all areas, and that everything in the "quo" of things, prone change and shift dramatically within a few years on the fingers of one hand, contrary to what many people expect.
Because it is difficult to subdue phenomena humanitarian and social exact measurement or "ruler" - as they say - the caution or reservation Ward as posed by researchers owners of those visions or predictions of the future in the field of "humanitarian", I mean the field of social studies and humanity in general.
It must be acknowledged that the shortage suffered by fields of scientific research in the field of social studies in the Gulf region "and the Arab region" as regards the possibility to predict with a high degree of control and precision in the results or prospects of ideas and proposals that emerge from studies of the problems of society, is the one who makes such research, social studies characterized guess or rounding the monitoring of future events, which makes component failure or error in predictions or expectations improbable.
I have three witnesses in this matter, the first is what was written by the late Fikri Abaza, an Egyptian Writers adult in the middle of the last century, where the magazine published Crescent Cairene 1950 outlook for the senior writer for "Egypt 2000" from within the sign, to be Britain City Egypt's substantial amount of pounds, and become Egypt's population in 2000, thirty million people. The fact is that the pound has become seven Egyptian pounds, and Egypt mired in foreign debt, and a population arrived to seventy million people!! When the solution in 2000!!
The second witness is a committee set up by the U.S. Congress in 1935 to predict what will be the science and technology in the second half of the twentieth century, and the Committee was composed of the best minds of the American scientific, after the submission of its report in 1938, her death that predicts - among other things - the discovery of penicillin or radar, said of the forecast that "the aircraft would not be able to fly more than speed then known," of course, the aircraft became a speed faster than the speed of sound before it expires century!!
The third is a view of Condoleezza Rice, U.S. Secretary of State and is the age of the tenth to the wall of the White House, and she said to her family at the time: - He also said a recent book about her life - "I'll be here one day," and has already become there in the White House after four decades of old ...
However, it is fair to say that some of the opinions and predictions that came in some of the books and literature and writings that dealt with "visions of the future" or "making the future" with their owners for decades, some of which have already achieved during the years of the latter half of the twentieth century past.
It is not surprising that the last three decades of the twentieth century witnessed a widespread interest in future studies to a large degree and remarkable, and I knew more than the previous years and decades.
This is because the planning for the future has become a necessary feature of the attributes of the newly industrialized countries, I must point out that look to the future, or rather shaping him, is difficult to study in isolation from the past, or far away from understanding the meaning of the present, not the past just the events over and gone, and goes on The statement that there is some sort of "continue" or the overlap between the three perspectives, past, present and future, so that we can say:
The last "live" in the present and in the future is ... it is through the interpretations and evaluations of the past becomes the past meaningful and realistic in the present and the future together. ([1])
Here we have obstacles in the Arab space, the first is that there are a lot of writers and commentators believe that the "past" Arabs better than their present, and perhaps future, as seen by many to be the future, "dark" as produced by taking the present. If we look to the Gulf, the closest to the logic that "we used the mind" that the future is going to change significantly, to the point that future generations will not see that the generation that preceded them had "acted" in wealth and power prudent behavior. This is because the economic boom witnessed by our generation based on the source of fatigue in observers referred to as a source of wealth "depleted." And is not new to say that Gulf communities may become either "abandoned cities" empty, literary expression, as happened to the cities of gold in South America, and either become a developed and a developing economy as Singapore and Hon Kong is also referred to as stigmatized. It all depends on the policies taken today. It is politicians in some positive shortcomings in others.
([1]), the World of Tomorrow (essay), Dr. Ahmed Abu Zaid, the magazine world of thought, mg / 4 / GS / 1 / April-June / 1973, the Ministry of Information - Kuwait - 7 p.
التسميات
Gulf Future