The I, Balkhchih, it will not be possible to meet the needs of a growing population. And it comes, to know whether there will be what can produce adequate diet of the population in this world, simply, but also to know, whether current consumer models can be implemented at the same pace, with the increase in population.
Has exceeded the total agricultural production in the world, the mark (100), to mark (220), during the period (1960, 1990), while the number of people in this world, mark (100 to 170), during the same period.
But, finally, it must ensure that work to increase agricultural production to feed the world's population, now, and until (2030), an increase of up to (40%) in order to be the current rate of food sources, maintaining it for the individual.
And lead manufacturing to changes in dietary habits, "Meat and milk products at the expense of grain", is required most, for hectare for cattle are roomy, resulting in (100) kg of meat each year, while the per hectare himself, for the production of rice, are irrigated , produces ten tons.
However, there have been "green revolution", which allowed this increase in overall agricultural production, thanks to intensive agriculture, the consumption of large quantities of water and fertilizers.The meet food needs, then possible, but spoke in turn another threat, environmental threat. Which is the most dangerous. Today, agriculture represents (70%) of water cuts in the world, compared to (20%) and industry (10%) for the consumption of drinking water.
However, today, if the famine was still ongoing, it is not because it is not possible to feed the world's population, but because it is not meant to do. There is no longer famine "normal." The ones they occur as a result of conflict or through mortgage civilian population by governments or warring factions (3).
The second challenge. He, resulting from the disparity, or economic inequality. People in developed countries, they are more enjoyment of well-being, while increasing poverty and destitution in third world countries.
South was importing (15) million tons of food products in the year (1960), each year, and then exceeded this figure (25) million tons (1970), then (70) million tons (1980), and the figure jumped to (100) million tonnes, (1990), then (120) million tonnes, (1995), and so on, increasing continuously.
The possible cause of this difference in strength and demographic differences in the standard of living, in the era of globalization, and in a time when easy movements, possible all this lead to important migrations flows opposite to those observed migrations in the nineteenth century. Today, immigration is no longer running from the developed countries, some underdeveloped countries, but in the opposite direction. It is not certain that the sixth richest on the earth's surface, can receive five-sixths of the world's wealth in a continuous and non-homogeneous.
Thus, the population of the Third World countries increased. While the population of developed countries remains stable. Today, the population of developed countries to maintain their standard of living relatively stable, and there are about a billion people from these, compared to about five billion, living in third world countries.
And Sychekh most members of this one billion, from the rich, during forty years, since They will come up in age, and here can become in situations of confrontation with more than (7) of billions of poor people, and here will be the place where occupying smaller than it is today.
In (2025) will become six people out of ten Asians, "especially from the Chinese and Indians" in exchange for one African belongs to the Maghreb or the Middle East, and will be one of Latin America, and one from Europe.
And if the difference in wealth, currents today will become inverted. Because, also wrote historian Paul Kennedy (PAUL KENNEDY ) In his book, prepared for the twenty-first century (4):
"If we continue the Third World and is located in a poverty trap, the most developed countries will find themselves surrounded by tens of millions of migrants and refugees wishing to reside along with the population affluent. But the elderly, from countries democracies, and in any case, the results will be, as it is potential, painful, for the sixth richest part, on the surface of the earth, we enjoy today, in a way that is homogeneous, with the remaining five-sixths, in wealth, today And currents negative. "
Economic disparities are not only growing, but more than that, too, she is known, from this side and the other, from both sides of the globe. As globalization became a multiplier effect, in finding and deepen the gap between the rich and the poor, allowing them to become forced to stay in a stable condition, but it is not certain they would accept this situation for a long time.
The geopolitical world have been able to in Bagneubberszinski, to write on this subject: "in the arena of history, you can see a conflict or even a collision between a consumer binge or evil and hungry scenes" (5).
And will be the population of the United States, the lowest of the population of Nigeria, in the year (2025), and will equal the number of Iraq's population, the population of Japan, in that year. This, according to estimates by the United Nations, as will become Ethiopia's population, twice the population of France.
In short, it will become rich countries, small countries in terms of demographics, it will be in Canada, a member of the club most industrialized countries, it will be, a number of people equivalent to the population of Nepal or Madagascar.
Here will be the potential problem of immigration from the north and the south.
Meanwhile, the number of residents in the north will become less and less, with South excessively in population, economic, Stdtrha migrations to do migrations political. If I had that these migrations become dense, then problems can be asked of social acceptance of these migrants.
Believes Leicester Toro (LESTER THUROW ) (6) that the new class struggle will not be the rich against the poor, but will struggle against youth elders "who will vote", and perhaps agree with young people "who do not vote." He points out that in the United States, will vote elderly systematically against local taxes, earmarked for education, where settle in the cities of the ghetto (GATED CITES ) (Any cities out), where young people will not be allowed to housing, then there will be no school costs, and bring up the subject of population aging, on the other hand, the overall problem of funding retirement.
When select Bismarck retirement age, "and the right to pension" to enact the (65) years, and that year (1891), the average age was in Germany at the time, up to (45) years only, but this was quite generous Bismarck calculated. If this scheme shall be applied to our day today, for pension, then you must specify the retirement age (95) years, so there (4,5) factor to finance one retiree's pension. There will be in (2030) only (1.7) the only factor.
If the demographic problem, relating to the aging of the population is in the north, above all, those youth, is to be raised in the South: In both cases. The problem is related to the number Almikdan unable to afford those who are non Almikdan, either because they are very young, or because they are very elderly.
Represents the number of children, aged less than the (15) years, in third world countries (40%) of the population, so it created this ratio important heavy burden for the total people what of those countries, and forcing them to control painful between consumption immediately, and investment in the future.
And then put, problem use, immediately, for submission to all strata of age entrants to the labor market. Will the world will know a demographic shift, the overall level?
Originally, the population was stable, and the reality of harmony or compatibility between the birth rate and high mortality rate. But population growth now, because the second has decreased "manufacturing medical advance ... etc." while the first remained intact. And on the track, I knew the rich countries a decline in births, when rates increased wealth and education, and improving the status of women in society, and all individual development. The countries of the South can, within a period of up to like exactly the same, was a high figure in the number of children in the past, guarantee "enough to get the wings in order to farm the land." Today, only became this heavy burden "cost of education" for example. Poverty and drag to uncertainty about the number of children who Sikhtafhm disease or hunger or war. These two models "the high number of births, death, birth weak in births and longevity" are things stable. The transition between the two leads to imbalance.
التسميات
third wave